Cuba future predictions that are most important for Cubans overseas
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Marc Fanelli-Isla on Unsplash.com
Like most beautiful cosmopolitan countries with a lot of potential, great people, and natural beauty, Cuba has always been on the list of candidates for an ideal place. And like in most such cases, politics and administration play a vital role in Cuba future and making it better for people.
When it comes to Cuban expats, Cuba future is as important as the past that created so many memories. On one hand, because Cubans abroad care for the community, including relatives and friends over there, and continue to support Cuban fellows. On the other hand, they may want to return someday and that depends a lot on the Cuba future. How do we know that? Well, thousands of Cubans in the MobileRecharge community talk about it.
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Ricardo IV Tamayo on Unsplash.com
That’s why we decided to do some digging for some Cuba future predictions, especially now when street protests broke out “for the first time in more than six decades to protest against deteriorating living conditions and the lack of basic goods and services, including medical attention amid increasing numbers of coronavirus infections.” (“What’s Happening in Cuba? The Protests Against the Communist Regime“, The Wall Street Journal)
Cuba future. Change will come today or tomorrow.
Before getting to Cuba future predictions, we thought about change. And change is inevitable in the world, and sacrifice is part of it, especially when that comes from popular initiatives and needs. Now, what other agents besides the popular power play an important role in Cuba future? Let’s see what experts say.
Demonstrations force limits to replace the paradigm, hoping for the better. Is this Cuba’s moment?
The protests, with thousands of people calling for an end to the 62-year-old communist regime, began on July 11 in the western city of San Antonio de los Baños, later spreading to more than 40 cities and towns including the capital Havana. President Miguel Díaz-Canel deployed security forces across the country. His government disrupted communications, with the state-run phone and network monopoly, Etecsa, halting internet service. (Wall Street Journal)
We’ve been together with our MobileRecharge.com fans in times when local and international communication was disrupted. They were ready to take advantage of the monthly Cubacel bonuses for folks back in Cuba, and then surprise… Anyway, one NEW PROMO on the way in August.
Why this all started in the first place? This July 2021, Today.Law.Harvard.Edu. mentioned the crossroad of factors in the article Cuba’s ‘uncertain future’ about Cuba future that makes the present economic crisis the worst in its history. The Harvard Law Visiting Professor Rafael Cox Alomar talked about Cuba future as influenced by a complex set of factors and said that the country has never ‘faced such a complex set of political and economic variables’.
The immediate catalysts leading to the Cuban protests are the lack of food (and other basic goods), the shortage of COVID-19 vaccines, the constant power outages, and the overall dissatisfaction with the policies and decisions rendered by the island’s government. The timing of these unprecedented protests coincides with a significant surge in COVID-19 cases, with the accompanying implosion of the tourism and export sectors, the end of the government’s failed dollarization policy (by means of the so-called markets of “freely convertible currency”), significantly high levels of inflation, an overall contraction of 11% of the Cuban GDP, and the rising prominence of social media in the island. (Rafael Cox Alomar, Cuba’s ‘uncertain future’ )
It may all depend of a stronger opposition
Within this context, the opposition is the key. A more effective force may turn the events today into a promising Cuba future. And we know the potential.
“Cuba’s political opposition appears significantly fragmented; lacking a discernible strategy and leadership — indispensable elements for achieving long-term success.” Yet, the July 11 protests have no precedent in recent history and may very well signal the coming of age of a more effective opposition.
Cuba future depends on an urgent, innovative, cohesive, and appropriate internal strategy
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L’odyssée Belle on Unsplash.com
A talk on Cuba future predictions requires the viewpoint of more than one specialist. Professor Carmelo Mesa-Lago’s insights from The Cuban Economy: The Current Crisis, Its Causes, and Policies for the Future, prove there are external factors Cuba can no longer find aid from outside and is left somehow alone to figure out its future.
A constant in the 60 years of the revolution has been heavy dependence on a foreign nation, first the USSR ($65 billion in 1960–1990, thrice the amount that the Alliance for Progress granted to Latin America) and later Venezuela ($122 billion in 2007–2017 alone, excluding direct investment). Despite such huge external economic support, Cuba has been unable to restructure its economy to finance imports with its own exports and without foreign aid and subsidies. (The Cuban Economy: The Current Crisis, Its Causes, and Policies for the Future)
Many plans and less achievements, but plans are still on
It seems in 2019, President Díaz-Canel promised some changes, that half-year later did not materialize.
- Replace administrative controls with financial incentives
- Decentralize real autonomy to state enterprises
- Enact a law to eliminate restrictions to micro-businesses
- Foreign trade decentralization
What happened actually? Multiple sources, as well as the public statements of Mr. Gil, confirm:
- State employees’ wages were increased by 37%, actions that most Cuban economists judged as factors that feed inflation.
- The government put caps on the prices of goods in the private sector.
- Delays in payments to foreign suppliers.
- No advances in foreign investment.
- The goal of replacing imports for tourism with domestic production had not been achieved.
WHAT MOST CUBAN ECONOMISTS SUGGEST
- “Carry out monetary and exchange-rate unification
- [Conduct] a comprehensive price reform
- Authorize professionals to work as self-employed and eliminate excessive barriers to the non-state sector
- Replace the list of authorized self-employed activities by a list of banned activities
- End the experimental stage for NASC and approve more of them
- Eliminate the acopio system
- Establish wholesale markets (perhaps even managed by foreign enterprises) to supply needed inputs to the non-state sector
- Let foreign companies contract and pay directly to their employees
- Permit foreign investment (including Cubans abroad) in microenterprises and NASC
- Establish banks—including foreign—that provide micro-credit
- Allow the non-state sector to import and export directly
- Eliminate the toughest taxes on micro-businesses
- Impose the levy on profit rather than on gross revenue and permit the full deduction of expenses
- [Assign] an independent association of micro-entrepreneurs with power to negotiate conditions with the government and get involved in pertinent legislation; and
- Create a channel to denounce corrupt state officials that collect bribes from non-state workers” (lacc.fiu.edu)
Conclusions and tips for Cubans abroad
While watching the news and talking to your folks in Cuba, be encouraged and encouraging. Many Eastern European nations have undergone communist effects on social life and economy, despite its positive sides. Make efforts to stay by, help, share any info for the world, so that the world knows about Cuba.
And then, we leave you with this context, possibilities that new or existing political forces apply the ideas that exist and may put Cuba on a different economical map. It’s a must, and not only a desire, so it seems.
But before we end the talk, here are some tips for those of you reading this who are Cubans living outside the motherland. A NEW Cubacel promo is coming between August 23-28, 2021.
MORE THAN TRIPLE PROMO on mobile top ups to Cuba
This August Cubacel promo lined up with the events in the country. When people need more to communicate than before in the whirl of today’s events, mobile credit coming from outside the country as help gets tripled. The bonus is generous and much-awaited. The mobile recharge is instant.
Yet there are some conditions, like the amount that gets the bonus. Read more about the terms right here.
